A New book series of monographs

Systems Evaluation, Prediction and Decision-making

Will be published by Auerbach Publications, an imprint of Taylor and Francis, in 2008 – 2010.

The first monograph of the series, entitled

“Systemic Yoyos: Some Impacts of the Second Dimension”

by Yi Lin, will be in print in October, 2008

1. Aim

The goal of this research book series is to present in the form of monographs the most recent scientific achievements of our research team in the following areas:

Evaluation of management practice in recent China,

Unconventional methods of prediction and forecast, and

Decision-making theories regarding managerial scenarios in China.

The planned books will crystallize the widely cited works, originally published in the form of research articles, into cohesive theories. These original paper publications were the offspring of over 40 projects, funded respectively by various major scientific and business organizations at the international, national, ministerial, and provincial levels during the past 20 some years.

The emphasis of this book series is on our team’s theories, methods, and modeling techniques developed to deal with various real-life management situations and predictions of disastrous events, involving uncertainties. Because of the inevitable uncertainties, brand new theories, methods and modeling techniques are called for. The main focus of these books will be on the theories and applications of grey systems and information and blown-ups.

2. Scope

This book series will contain two catenae. One catena focuses on the theories and methodologies of systems evaluations, predictions, and decision-makings; and the other stresses the practical applications of these theories and methodologies. The first catena will mainly consist of recent studies on grey systems and information, grey game theory and applications, irregularities and prediction of major disasters, systemic yoyo model and its applications in theory and practice, hybrid rough sets methods and applications in problems of unascertained decision-making, and theory and approaches on unascertained group decision-making. The second catena will contain such monographs on applied aspects of the aforementioned theories and methodologies as the transfer theory of science and technology and its applications, optimization of regional industrial structures, and efficiency evaluation of scientific activities.

3. How to Cover the Aim and Scope

Herbert A. Simon believes that management is all about decision-making. Managerial activities consist of series of decision-makings. And, decision-making is both the core and key of problems of economics and management. In today’s extremely competitive marketplace, no matter whether it is business entities or individuals as private citizens, they very often face with problems of decision-making involving complicated, various kinds uncertainties, which have to be analyzed and dealt with. These uncertainties include, but not limited to, stochasticities, fuzziness, favoritism, roughness, greyness, etc. Even with the appearance of these uncertainties, it is quite often that decisions have to be made as timely and promptly as possible. Such decision-making problems involving different kinds of uncertainties exist permeably in management science, information science, systems science, computer science, knowledge engineering, reliability technology, and many other areas of learning. Evaluation is the foundation of decision-making. When faced with situations involving uncertainties, the number one most important task is to make objective evaluations and appraisals (and/or diagnoses) in order to form the correct understanding about the decision-making environment and objects. However, each practical decision-making environment is dynamic and evolutionary. So, only with solid ability to make scientific predictions, one can make most appropriate and adequate decisions. Evidently, evaluation, prediction, and decision-making are indispensable factors and components considered in the current theories of economics, management, and related applied researches.

The authors of this planned book series are associates and members of the research group of grey systems, located at Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Our group was judged and awarded the honor of the first ranked team of scholars based on its scientific achievements and practical successes in real-life applications in Jiangsu Province, China. In recent years, our group has awarded and completed over 40 joint projects, producing magnificent economic and social benefits. Most of these projects were from international, national, provincial, and ministerial funding agencies, presenting great honor and prestige. As of the writing of this proposal, our research group has published over 300 research articles on some well-recognized professional journals both in China and abroad and over 20 monographs. The characteristics and strengths of our research group are in the theoretical and applied areas of evaluations, predictions, decision-makings, and modeling techniques under the influence of uncertainties. Our works and theoretical discoveries have been successfully employed in the recent Chinese economic boom in terms of practical management and related areas.

In theoretical studies and practical applications, our research team focused on quantitative methods and modeling techniques, tight association between theory and practice, and extracting scientific problems in practical areas of applications. Also, the team paid special attention on promptly employing its newly established theories and methods back to resolving physical problems so that the new discoveries theoretical results can be tested and bring about realizable benefits to the economy and society. Though many years of theoretical and applied research, our team has produced a great amount of brand new knowledge in the areas of systems evaluation, prediction, and decision-making, and accumulated a sizable quantity of results in quantified theoretical studies and practical applications. These research outcomes have widened the range of application in practical managerial situations of the knowledge on evaluations, predictions, and decision-makings involving uncertainties. Based on the team members’ research contents and the accumulated outcomes, the obtained scientific results can be organized into the following two catenae: (1) the catena on theoretical and methodological research, and (2) that on applications in various managerial situations. The first catena, the theoretical and methodological aspect, contains such monographs that focus on the evaluation, prediction and decision-making of problems with uncertainty, such as grey systems, grey games, irregularities and major disasters, hybrid rough sets, unascertained group decision-making, etc. The second catena, which is on the applied studies in management practices, will have an emphasis on the areas of systems evaluations, predictions, and decision-making as employed managerial situations, such as the theory and applications of the transfer of science and technology, optimization of regional industrial structures, evaluation and empirical verification of the efficiency of scientific activities, etc.

This book series will give prominence to quantitative methods together with modeling techniques, while showing the characteristics of close associations between theories and practical applications. The monographs will offer many different kinds of scientific, regularized methods and tools for the managerial problems, encountered in practical situations, of evaluation, prediction, and decision-making involving uncertainties. This book series will be rooted in practice with the aim of resolving many kinds of unascertained evaluation, prediction and decision-making problems that can be met potentially in management practice. Each monograph will contain not only detailed explanations on the theoretical foundations of various computer software packages, but also a great amount of case studies exacted from our various managerial projects.